Scientists and Politicans Discuss the Threat of Near-Earth Objects

This article is about NEOs- Near Earth Objects- and possible steps that could be taken to deflect one of these objects if it should appear in danger of colliding with Earth.  A major impact by an NEO is not just a possibility, it is an absolute certainty.  The only question is, when will it happen, and how prepared will we be when it does?

The bad thing about science is that it lets us know just how precarious our position is.  Our ancestors were blissfully ignorant, thinking they were living in a safe and unchanging world.  Now we know that this was only a misconception caused by lack of knowledge.  As we get smarter, we realize just how dangerous this universe is, and how quickly and completely our little corner of it could change.  All the bodies of the solar system, including Earth, are pockmarked with the prints of past impacts, and more of them are being discovered all the time.

There are many examples.  In 2004, for instance, a systems analyst in Buenos Aires, Max Rocca, was indulging his hobby of poring over Landsat images online, when he noticed something unusual.  There is a river in Colombia called the Vichada which travels through miles of dense jungle before finally reaching the Orinoco.  For most of its course, the Vichada travels in a very predictable way, following the natural shape of the land.  Max Rocca had some training as a geologist, and he could tell where the path of the Vichada River should be in that landscape.  For most of the river’s course, he was absolutely right.  Only at one point did it deviate from the expected course, and that was where it turned at almost a right angle, traced a perfect semicircle through the jungle, and then returned to its former path.

Apparently there was a semi-circular feature on the land at that point, which had never been found before because the jungle growth obscured its outline.  Rocca knew it shouldn’t be there.  There was nothing in the normal seismic and erosional forces shaping this landscape that should have made a perfectly round depression there.

Further investigation showed that the crook in the Vichada River was following a ridge along one side of a circular depression 50 kilometers wide.  A shallow depression surrounded by a ridge of hills is the classic signature of an impact crater, and this was the biggest one every found in South America, 50 kilometers wide.

While Mr. Rocca certainly deserves kudos for his discovery, such features are not rare.  One truly spectacular example is Vredefort Crater in South Africa, which at 300 kilometers wide, is the largest confirmed impact crater on Earth.  (The Wilkes Land Crater in Antarctica is even larger at 500 km., but has not yet been confirmed to be an impact crater.)   Luckily, this event occurred some two billion years ago.  If such an impact happened today, it would induce an “impact winter” effect that would disrupt agriculture on a global scale, resulting in widespread famine and the probable extinction of many of the lifeforms on the planet- especially big ones at the top of the food chain (that’s us).

Of course, the situation is much better now than it was back then, because many of the rocks that were whizzing around two billion years ago have already hit something, but there are still plenty of rocks flying around the sun that are big enough to cause vast destruction.  When you consider the consequences of a single event of the magnitude of Vredefort or even the Vichada impact, it is impossible to ignore the threat.

With this in mind, there has been a lot of very serious discussion in recent years about what we can do if an asteroid or comet is found to be on a collision course with Earth.

The issue is being addressed by various organizations around the world, some associated with specific national governments and others of an international nature.  In 1998, NASA established its Near-Earth Object Program and set a goal of locating at least 90 percent of the estimated 2,000 asteroids and comets larger than one kilometer that approach Earth by the end of the following decade.  Unfortunately, it is now 2010 and this goal has still not been reached, but it probably will be realized in the next few years (see the article on the WISE space probe at this site).

Despite the fact that it has had to revise its original timetable, the NEOP is still alive and well.  In a 2007 report to Congress, NASA refined the goal of the project to the mapping of all bodies larger than 140 meters across whose orbits pass within .05 AU of Earth’s orbit.  At that time, the date of completion was estimated to be 2020.

In its web page about the establishment of this organization, NASA points out that the detection of NEOs also has a possible good side.  We now know that comets and asteroids are rich in substances that will prove useful to future space exploration efforts.  One of the most important of these is water, which exists in frozen form on many of the small bodies of the solar system.  In addition to its obvious usefulness for human consumption, water can be processed to yield oxygen and hydrogen, which also have multiple uses.  Besides this, there may be metals and minerals on some of these bodies that can be mined by future explorers.

The United Nations started an organization in 2001 called Action Team-14, which is dedicated to international discussions of the NEO issue.

This is all good, but it does raise an obvious question: when we find a NEO that is clearly going to impact Earth, what can we do about it?  Bear in mind that if we just shoot a missile at the thing, it will only make matters worse by creating a multitude of smaller pieces, all of which would follow roughly the same path as the parent body.  That would be turning a cannonball into buckshot- not a good idea.

Recent scientific findings have shown just how likely such an outcome would be.  We now know that “rubble piles” are very common in the solar system- see the article at this site about Mars’ moon, Phobos.  These are groups of rocks that stick to each other because of their slight gravitation, but are not actually attached.  If nothing happens to separate these rocks, they might stay together for billions of years; but if something hits them and jostles them apart- say, a missile fired by foolish little germs on some nearby planet- then they could fly apart very easily, and the buckshot analogy would be quite appropriate.

In its 2007 report to Congress, NASA listed different techniques that might be used to deflect a NEO that is on a collision course with Earth, and assessed the potential effectiveness of each one.  Because of the rubble pile problem, they immediately dismissed any idea of detonating an explosive on or under the surface of the body.  However, the report did propose an alternative: bring a nuclear device close to the NEO- but not too close- and set it off.  The force of the blast would nudge the NEO into a different orbit, but if you positioned the explosion right, it might not blow the object to pieces.

What we do depends, to some extent, on how much time we have to get to know our intruder.  In a best-case scenario, we would spot the object some years before it was to make impact.  Then we would be able to send an unmanned probe to study the threatening object.  By transmitting a continuous radio signal during a flyby of the body, the probe would allow Earth-based scientists to measure the Doppler shift of the signal, and calculate the body’s mass.  This would give us a pretty good idea of whether we were dealing with a rubble pile or not.  (As we saw in our Phobos article, rubble pile objects tend to have very low gravity because so much of their interior is empty space.)  If it turns out that we are dealing with a solid body rather than a rubble pile, our troubles are over (almost).  NASA estimates that for such a body, the best approach would be to shoot a non-explosive impactor, or more likely a series of them, at the body and knock it into a new orbit like an oversized pool ball.

Various “slow push” techniques have been proposed.  One of these is to find another asteroid and modify its orbit so that it acts as a tugboat, pulling the threatening object into a new orbit.  Another idea is to put down a robot lander which would actually mine rock from the body and fire it off in high-velocity “bullets,” in effect turning the NEO into a rocket.  Another idea is to send a spacecraft to rendezvous with the NEO and spray-paint it with some coloring agent which would make one side brighter than the other, so that radiation from sun-heated material would provide a small thrust.

One particularly novel proposal has come from America’s Planetary Society: mirror bees.  These are small, unmanned craft that use mirrors to focus sunlight on the NEO, causing material to boil off and create jets which, if carefully positioned, could change its orbit.  Alternatively, they might use lasers rather than mirrors.

The 2007 Congressional report said that while slow push techniques would work in theory, they could only be used if we had plenty of warning, since they all involve getting spacecraft to the object and performing operations that would take some time to be effective.  If we only have short warning- which is likely, unfortunately- then a stand-off nuclear explosion is probably our best bet.

The report also pointed out that up to 80 percent of NEOs might be in orbits that could not be attained by current launch vehicles, which would mean that new launchers would need to be developed.  Even then, it would be necessary to use gravity-assist maneuvers to the fullest advantage to reach some of them.

So the bad news is, if it happens, we’re in big trouble.  The good news is, at least the governments and other institutions of the world are aware of the problem, and are trying to do something about it.  These discussions have yielded some good ideas, but now those ideas must be acted on.  Our planet has been pounded many times before, and each time, many species became extinct as a result.  If we are lucky, maybe it will be different next time.

Sources:

Lendroth, Susan: Press Release- “Saving Earth One Asteroid at a Time” at the website of the Planetary Society:  planetary.org/about/press/releases/2010/0212_Saving_Earth_One_Asteroid_at_a_Time.html

Alexander, Amir: “Project: Asteroids- the Potential Threat” at the website of the Planetary Society:  planetary.org/programs/projects/targetearth/20100213.html

Projects: “Mirror Bees: Planetary Defense” at the website of the Planetary Society:  planetary.org/programs/projects/mirrorbees/

Murrill, Mary Beth and Whalen, Mark: “JPL Will Establish Near-Earth boject Program Office for NASA” at the NASA website:  neo.jpl.nasa.gov/program/neo.html

“Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Analysis of Alternatives” (report to Congress, March 2007):  neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/report2007.html

Vredefort Crater entry at Wikipedia:  wikipedia.org/wiki/Vredefort_crater