Russia Considering Asteroid Apophis Mission

It is known that the planet Earth has suffered collision events in its past history and is generally accepted that this will happen again at some time in the future. One of the most serious events in recent history occurred in 1908 when a 100 foot asteroid crashed into a remote area of Siberia and devastated an area 1,200 square miles in size. However there are a number of known asteroids which are far greater than 100 foot in size and these include one known as Apophis which was first identified in 2004. This asteroid is expected to pass earth again in 2029 with the chances that it will collide with Earth being estimated at 1 in 250,000. However the Russian Space Agency take the threat from this seriously enough that they recently announced they are considering launching a mission to deflect the asteroid.

When it was first identified in 2004 Apophis caused some concern as initial observations indicated a small chance that it would collide with Earth during its 2029 pass of the planet. At an estimated size of around 1000 feet this had the potential to be a serious impact event. However additional observations discounted the possibility of a collision in 2029 although they showed that the course of the asteroid could possibly take it through a gravitational keyhole at this time. These are small regions in space that can alter an asteroids course in such a way that on its subsequent pass it could collide with the Earth. If Apophis passed through such a region it was considered that it could set up an impact event in 2036.

This threat was taken seriously enough that Apophis remained on the Torino impact Hazard scale until 2006. This scale is a method of categorizing the potential danger of an asteroid and runs from 0 to 10. An asteroid classified with a 0 rating has a negligible chance of colliding with Earth while a classification of 10 means that a collision is certain. Asteroid Apophis was classified as a 4 for a short time although further study showed that it was unlikely that it would pass through a gravitational keyhole and it was subsequently downgraded to a 0.

However a number of scientists still consider that Apophis warrants further study to assess its threat. In 2008 the Planetary Society organized a competition to design a space probe which could be used to track the asteroid and awarded $50,000 in prize money to the winners. The European Space Agency, NASA and other research groups have also studied ways in which Apophis or other similar asteroids could be deflected from an Earth bound course.

The latest view of the threat that Apophis poses came from the Russian Space Agency at the end of December 2009. Anatoly Perminov currently heads this organization and in a radio interview he indicated that they were planning a meeting to discuss the possibility of a mission to Apophis. Although no detailed information was given, Perminov indicated that other agencies such as NASA and the Chinese and European Space Agencies may be invited to join any subsequent project that the Russian Space Agency plans. Whether this comes to fruition remains to be seen.

Whatever the outcome of the latest discussions regarding Apophis, it is generally accepted that at some point in the future an asteroid is likely to be found that is on a collision course with Earth. Recent advances in technology such as the WISE telescope and projects such as NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program are likely to identify many new asteroids in coming years. While the majority of these will pose no threat to Earth it cannot be discounted that a number of dangerous asteroids will be identified. Studying strategies for dealing with such a threat is best done as early as possible and while Apophis itself may not turn out to be dangerous it may help to spur agencies and research groups into taking action which could prove to be beneficial in the long run.